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  • Daniel Dobbs (Mutual Home Mortgage)

ARE WE IN A CRASH, CORRECTION, OR CHILL?


What do pricing patterns suggest about the next twist for the house hunt …

Crash? This argument would focus on August to November when all 20 U.S. markets had month-to-month losses. Previously, across-the-board declines had occurred only 13 times since 1991.

And the last time there was a longer losing streak like this was the six months ending in February 2009. You know, back in the Great Recession’s bubble bust.

Or a mere correction? Look at December’s local median selling prices from CoreLogic, and you’ll see L.A. prices are 10% off their April peak and O.C. prices are down 11% from their May top.

Attention, house hunters; There’s been additional discounting through at least the end of the year!

Just a chill? Yes, Case-Shiller’s 20-city composite index shows U.S. home prices are off 5% from the June 2022 peak. But the 20-city composite still sits 7% above November 2021.


And U.S. prices are 38% above what was being paid three years ago.

Elsewhere: The other 17 market results, ranked by drop from their price tops …

Seattle: Off 13% from May’s peak but up 1% over 12 months. Three years? 41% gain.

Phoenix: Off 8% from June peak but up 6% over 12 months. Three years? 60% gain.

Denver: Off 7% from May peak but up 6% over 12 months. Three years? 38% gain.

Las Vegas: Off 7% from July peak but up 7% over 12 months. Three years? 43% gain.

Dallas: Off 7% from June peak but up 11% over 12 months. Three years? 49% gain.

Portland: Off 6% from May peak but up 4% over 12 months. Three years? 34% gain.

Boston: Off 5% from June peak but up 7% over 12 months. Three years? 34% gain.

Washington: Off 4% from May peak, but up 5% over 12 months. Three years? 27% gain.

Minneapolis: Off 3% from June peak but up 5% over 12 months. Three years? 27% gain.

Detroit: Off 3% from June peak but up 6% over 12 months. Three years? 32% gain.

Charlotte: Off 3% from July peak but up 13% over 12 months. Three years? 51% gain.

Tampa: Off 3% from July peak but up 17% over 12 months. Three years? 65% gain.

Cleveland: Off 2% from July peak but up 7% over 12 months. Three years? 34% gain.

Atlanta: Off 2% from July peak but up 13% over 12 months. Three years? 47% gain.

Miami: Off 2% from July 2022 peak but up 18% over 12 months. Three years? 62% gain.

Chicago: Off 2% from July 2022 peak but up 8% over 12 months. Three years? 28% gain.

New York: Off 2% from July 2022 peak but up 8% over 12 months. Three years? 34% gain.


The bottom line is it's not all doom and gloom. There are opportunities out there and a reason to consider investing in real estate.

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